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Nursing numbers are falling as a potentially challenging winter for the NHS approaches

The number of nurses and health visitors employed by the NHS has fallen for the first time on a year-on-year basis since April 2013, according to a new analysis.

The analysis, by The King’s Fund, shows that there were fewer NHS nurses and health visitors in post in April this year when compared to the previous April, the first year-on-year monthly fall since April 2013.

The fall continued in May and June, with 282,603 nurses and health visitors in post in June, 1,071 fewer than in June 2016.

The key factor in the fall, according to the analysis, has been a significant reduction in the number of nurses from the EU joining the UK nursing register since the EU referendum and changes to language testing requirements, together with an increasing number of EU staff leaving the NHS.

The number of staff leaving the NHS as a result of ill-health and work-life balance has also increased sharply over the past few years.

The analysis follows Jeremy Hunt’s announcement of plans for a 25% increase in the number of nurse training places and the government’s decision to scrap bursaries for student nurses, which initial indications suggest has resulted in a reduction in successful applicants.

The fall in nurse numbers raises questions about the NHS’s continuing ability to ensure patient safety – a key focus for Jeremy Hunt during his time as Health Secretary – and the ability of the NHS to cope with a challenging winter ahead.

Since April 2013, the number of nurses and health visitors increased as hospitals recruited more staff and were effectively allowed to run financial deficits following the Francis Report into the failures of care at Mid Staffordshire NHS Foundation Trust.

The analysis underlines the mismatch between increases in the number of nurses and health visitors and rising demand for NHS services, with emergency admissions increasing by more than 14% since 2010, a period during which the number of nurses and health visitors has increased by only 0.7%.

Richard Murray, Director of Policy at The King’s Fund, said: “There is good evidence that having enough nurses is essential for delivering safe care, and so it is worrying that the number of nurses and health visitors is going down at a time when services are already overstretched and the demand for care is rising.

“This means the NHS is less equipped to cope with the demands of a winter that was already threatening to stretch the NHS to the limit.

“While last week’s announcement of an increase in nursing training places is welcome, it will take years for this to translate into extra nurses on the wards.”

Danny Mortimer, chief executive of NHS Employers, said: “Any indication that the NHS is becoming less attractive as a place to work for nurses, from abroad or from the UK, is a cause for concern.

“NHS organisations are working hard to address staff concerns and better retain vital nurse skills. They also however need national support. Expansion of nurse training, revisions to language testing and improving access to affordable housing are welcome interventions to help employers retain staff, but investment is also needed in pay and training budgets.”

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