It has finally arrived - the staffing crisis that has long been threatening to hit out-of-hours rotas.
The crisis has been coming such a long time that you would have thought a plan for managing it would have been put in place. We thought it would arrive in 2007 when MMC restricted training numbers. We then thought it would arrive in 2009 when the 48-hour week finally became law. But only this year, has push really come to shove.
When will those at the top of the decision-making tree actually listen and take heed of the day-to-day difficulties currently facing clinicians?
Money has been found here and there and diverted from many pots to fund a couple of extra consultant jobs (which to date don’t solve the first on rota problem).
As trainee numbers have dwindled the unused salaries have been identified and made available to be used for specialty doctor posts. But that solution doesn’t work in practice. There are fewer and fewer applications for our almost continually run specialty doctor advert. This is largely because there are no such doctors out there anymore. They are either in Specialty Training or in Australia.
Nor are there any locums. Since the ‘lost tribe’ found other sources of employment and other doctors were refused entry to the country, there is no pool of locums. Trainees are limited to a 48 hour working week. They cannot readily do the locums shifts even when extra money is available.
But, crunch time is here. Forty per cent of our trainee cohort are about to leave the programme due to a variety of bona fida reasons: a year abroad, a specialist fellow post, an inter deanery transfer, a maternity leave. These leave unfilled and unfillable posts.
Unfortunately, it feels like no-one is really listening. Perhaps we are our own worst enemy by continually coping with such staff reductions. But the slack in our system has run out. We will no longer be able to run our rotas.
What’s the solution? The number of man hours available within the system is finite.
We could waive the working time regulations, and revert to an on call system with more hours in hospital, but recognising that all of them are not spent working.
The other option is to merge sites and reduce the number of rotas to maintain current out-of-hours staffing and services. This would undoubtedly be unpopular. Smaller hospitals would close, MSPs would lose their seats, the public would lose their local hospital services and have to travel further afield for treatment.
But, is this a bad thing? Maintaining medical staffing on a wing and a prayer is not a success at any level.
The hope is that we will struggle on managing in the short term. In 2012, a bulge of trainees will finish their training culminating in the CCT and entry to the specialist register. They will be consultants in all but name or pay (status went a long time ago). There will be plenty of them, desperate for any jobs with which to pay the mortgage. The old rules of supply and demand will force them to take the jobs on offer and, lo and behold, we will have specialists to deliver the service.
But we can’t wait for them. Our out-of-hours Armageddon happens before then. Our workforce is annihilated now and trainee numbers continue to be reduced.
There will be a gap, and this sort of gap will threaten patient care. The radical and unpopular decisions that are needed will be postponed until after 5 May, the date of the next Scottish parliamentary election. And there’s a danger that they’ll be postponed until after the next one, and the next one…