The Lib Dems have a lot to answer for when it comes to the deeply unpopular Health and Social Care Bill. The Orange Book wing of the Lib Dems, of which Nick Clegg is a key member, actually supports the idea of a social insurance scheme with private providers to replace the NHS, which is a key objective of the current bill.
The Lib Dem election manifesto promoted the idea of a market-based healthcare system and abolition of SHAs. The coalition agreement on health reform was signed by Nick Clegg and reviewed by Danny Alexander. The final page of the Bill itself (p367) has the Lib Dem names of Nick Clegg, Vince Cable, Danny Alexander and Paul Burstow as supporters the Bill.
Finally, Lib Dem MPs have fully supported the Bill through its first two readings in Parliament.
However, the political landscape changed when the scale of the public and professional opposition became clear. The Lib Dem’s Spring conference, along with other factors such as the Royal College of Nursing vote of no confidence in health secretary Andrew Lansley, was crucial in terms of changing Nick Clegg’s stance on the reforms and gaining a natural “pause” in the Bill.
Following the trouncing of the Lib Dems in the local elections, Clegg’s demands for changes to the Bill have become increasingly muscular and substantial. He is currently demanding that the economic regulator, Monitor scraps its requirement to promote competition and at the weekend it was reported in The Guardian that he is now calling for a clause in the bill encouraging “any qualified provider” to take over services from the NHS, to be radically rethought or dropped.
If this policy was dropped then it would seriously curtail market forces and reduce the risk and rate of further NHS marketisation and privatisation. Considering that Lansley was “cheered to the rafters” for his reform agenda by the Conservative Party’s backbencher 1922 Committee last week, this is going to lead to very serious divisions in the coalition.
We potentially have a situation where current Lib Dem amendments could water down the Bill so significantly, that they would be incompatible with the main aim of the Bill, which is to introduce more market competition and private sector provision into the NHS.
The Conservatives have made a huge political gamble to radically overhaul the NHS and they will not back down lightly. It will only be worth the risk, if the end product is satisfactory. Since the market policies of choice, competition, and any willing provider are mutually reinforcing, loss of only one of these mechanisms would scupper the functioning of a market system. Thus, we have a potentially explosive political impasse. The input of the Future Forum will be of academic interest only, because it will be the political situation which ultimately decides the fate if the NHS.
So what are the possible political scenarios?
1. Conservatives ditch the Lib Dems and end the coalition. Simon Heffer from The Telegraph wrote an opinion piece about this, encouraging the Tories to go it alone, but this not likely because Cameron would need to be certain of winning an election outright and this certainly doesn’t look likely with the current polls and the fact that the NHS would feature heavily in election contest debates. The “nasty” party would be back on the agenda.
2. Lib Dems ditch the Conservatives and end the coalition on a ticket of “saving the NHS”. This is highly unlikely because of the risks involved. They will look like political opportunists rather than saviours of the NHS and their polling is simply too weak at present to risk it.
3. Coalition to stay together and get the bill through with amendments. This is clearly the most likely scenario, but what amendments are achieved is clearly the main issue here. As Nick Clegg said: “No bill is better than a bad bill”. Opponents of the reforms will need to be on their guard and forensically look at proposed changes. There will be backroom wheeler-dealering and plenty of political rhetoric to form enough smoke and mirrors to hide the plans to keep the Bill as close to the original as possible.
4. Coalition to stay together with withdrawal of the Bill. This initially would seem highly unlikely because as stated above, the Tories have put so much political capital and risk into this Bill. It would be a disaster for them because they would get the worst of both worlds. Unpopularity and political damage resulting from the fallout, plus no end result. However, this could be very attractive for the Lib Dems. They could get a lot of public support for this and the Tories would be so politically weakened that they could not end the coalition because they would not win an election. This means that the coalition would need to struggle on until the next election, which would give the Lib Dems time to rebuild their credibility.
This is clearly a crucial time. As an opponent of the reforms, I would personally favour option 4 because I think that the bill is unamendable due to the mutually reinforcing nature of market based policies. I also think that this is the best way for the Lib Dems to regain their credibility.
They really do have the power to save the NHS. It will be a serious U-turn of course, which will be highly criticised, but they could always claim that it was ‘in the national interest’. I would support that and I think that most of the public would do too.