Archive for February, 2011

Anger over ‘luxury junket’ for gay NHS managers

The Telegraph - 28th February 2011 7:28 pm

Health officials are spending thousands of pounds on a luxury residential course for gay, lesbian and bisexual NHS managers.

The Department of Health has been accused of “unbelievable waste” after paying £1,000 a head for bureaucrats to attend the programme, as hospitals announce swingeing job cuts.

Managers enrolled on the first ever NHS leadership course for gay, lesbian and bisexual managers will spend two days at a Gothic manor in Hertfordshire, where facilities include a swimming pool, tennis courts and 190 acres of gardens.

Paul Burstow, the health minister, said the programme, being run next month by gay campaign group Stonewall, would give “targeted leadership support” to lesbian, gay and bisexual staff, at a cost of £36,000.

Stonewall said that between 30 and 40 NHS leaders and future leaders were expected to attend the course, which was being run because gay managers in the NHS experienced a lot of discrimination.

Emma Boon, campaign director for the TaxPayers’ Alliance said: “It’s unbelievable, given the current climate of cuts, that the Government is spending taxpayers’ money on a luxury junket for managers.”

Read more in the Telegraph.

Good to air dirty laundry, but not end up in one

By Bob Bury - 4:19 pm

This sort of follows on from last week’s more serious blog concerning the Scotjunior fiasco, and it was stimulated by an article in this morning’s Times about a Chinese doctor who has been sacked for blogging unsympathetically about her patients (I think you will need to pay some money to Mr Murdoch if you want to follow the link).

The unfortunate Doctor Li had committed to the ether her desire that a particular terminal patient should die as soon as possible so that she (Dr Li) could get a good night’s sleep before a planned excursion the following day. There were lots of complaints about her callous attitude, and it would seem that they have less truck with formal disciplinary procedures in China than we do in the NHS because, according to the story, ‘by the following morning, and after a spectacular demotion, Dr Li was working in the hospital laundry room’.

By that criterion, Scotjunior was relatively lightly treated by his deanery, but his mistake was the same as Dr Li’s - they both underestimated the instant impact of postings on internet forums. This is an issue for all of us - who has not occasionally hit the ‘send’ button on an email they are particularly proud of, only to get that sinking feeling as you realise that you have selected ‘reply to all’? There is an unattributed quotation I was fond of using in the old days, which went ‘never post a letter you enjoyed writing’ - a stricture that I regularly ignored, and always regretted. The same applies in spades to that coruscating email telling a manager exactly why, and how spectacularly, they have fouled up. It also applies to blogs and internet bulletin boards - perhaps even more so, given their tendency to deal with issues that are controversial, and which generate strong feelings.

Of course, the other big problem with blogging is the fact that it is all done sitting at your desk, with no face-to-face contact either with your audience or with any potential target of your online invective. This means that even introverted, self-effacing types like me (no, honest) feel free to adopt the online persona of the incisive, opinionated commentator on life that they would really like to have been; dishing out wisdom laced with irony as they dissect the actions and words of lesser mortals. The trouble is that most of us lack the thick hide that is needed to deal with the backlash from our internet polemic. We cringe when it turns out that our words have wounded, we promise ourselves to tone it down next time. But then we get fired up again by some new outbreak of media or political twattery, and let loose the keyboard.

No doubt Dr Li, up to her elbows in soiled sheets and cheap communist carbolic soap, is pondering these very issues as I write. I suspect, though, that doctors everywhere will have some sympathy with the thoughts she expressed, if not with the wisdom of expressing them while the patient was still under her care.

I have certainly written elsewhere about my days as a 1 in 2 pre-reg houseman, trudging back to casualty yet again at three in the morning, after an hour’s sleep, hoping that the patient with chest pain would have died in the ambulance so that I could get back to bed. No adverse reaction to those comments, just mutterings of recognition from colleagues who had found themselves in the same position.

Hospitals must adapt to new world, says NHS chief

BBC Health - 12:01 pm

Private sector take-overs, mergers and more community-based care may be needed to ensure all hospitals survive the shake-up of the NHS, the head of the health service says.

Sir David Nicholson told the BBC the combination of reforms and squeeze on spending meant some hospitals would find the future “difficult”.

He said he did not expect any hospitals in England to close completely. But said some would needed to adapt and change to remain competitive.

Sir David, who will become the chief executive of the NHS commissioning board when GP consortia are set up, admitted the health service was facing one of its toughest and most demanding periods ever.

Read more at BBC Health.

BMA attacks Health Bill over “broken promises”

By Mike Broad - 11:42 am

A new BMA briefing says some of the Health and Social Care Bill goes against government pledges to put doctors ‘in the driving seat’ and could ultimately prevent them from delivering improvements to patient care.

With MPs on the Bill committee soon to consider the clauses on commissioning in the Bill for England, the BMA is questioning whether promises to devolve power to consortia and give them the freedom to decide what services they would commission are supported by the wording of the legislation.

It believes the powers of the health secretary and the NHS Commissioning Board will be overly restrictive and controlling, going against earlier pledges to empower doctors.

Dr Laurence Buckman, chairman of the BMA’s GPs committee, said: “The NHS Commissioning Board will be given sweeping powers to get involved with the way consortia operate. Time and time again in the Bill we see no mention of the need to consult consortia on matters that will have a direct and potentially very significant impact on the way they operate. And when it comes to the dissolution of a consortium, the most serious act of all, there is no requirement to consult the consortium or the public, and no recourse for appeal.

“We are very concerned about how restrictive the Bill is and want to see that, at the very least, there is a duty to consult consortia written into the legislation.”

The BMA is also concerned that the NHS Commissioning Board will not be able to operate autonomously and free from political control; the health secretary will be able to impose any conditions on consortia without review; and the NHS Commissioning Board will be able to dissolve consortia and change consortia areas, without consultation.

Furthermore, the Board could dismiss a consortium’s ‘accountable officer’ and bring in a replacement who will not be allowed to come from the local area. The accountable officer will be the role equivalent to the current CEO of a PCT.

The briefing represents another hardening in the BMA’s stance to the Health Bill, a head of the union’s special representatives meeting on 15 March.

It follows the raising of concerns over the confidentiality of patient records.

Dr Vivienne Nathanson, head of science and ethics at the BMA, said: “The Health Bill proposes that a number of bodies - including the Secretary of State for Health, the newly formed Commissioning Board and the NHS Information Centre - should be given the right to obtain and disclose confidential patient information for any number of unspecified purposes.

“There is very little reference to rules on patient confidentiality that would ensure patients are asked before their information is shared or guarantee that the patient’s identity will not be revealed. Fears that their data may be shared with others may result in patients withholding important information; this may not only affect their own health but has implications for the wider health service.

Read the full BMA briefing.

Read a blog on the medical profession’s waning support.

Why are the Lib Dems betraying the NHS?

By Dr Clive Peedell, consultant oncologist and co-chair of the NHSCA - 10:35 am

Traditionally, the Liberal Democrats have always stood on a political platform promoting a more just and progressive society, based on a mixed economy, supporting public institutions to ensure equal opportunities for all.

They have a proud heritage in assuming responsibility for the social security and health of the nation’s citizens, which includes David Lloyd George’s introduction of a welfare system between 1908-14. This was followed by the Beveridge report in 1942, which led to the creation of the Welfare state and set the foundations for the formation of the NHS by the Labour Party.

Not surprisingly they have a long history of visceral dislike of the Conservative Party.

However, in 2001, the Lib Dems policy review, chaired by Chris Huhne, forged the party’s first steps towards the erosion of public monopoly in public service provision. This change in policy direction was rubber stamped by a defining moment in the history of the Liberal Party with the publication of the Orange Book in 2004, with contributors including the current cabinet ministers Nick Clegg, Vince Cable, and Chris Huhne.

This signalled a major change in direction of policy towards the right, with a focus on free market economics and the use markets as a solution to social and societal problems. Notoriously, the Orange Book called for a social insurance scheme with private providers to replace the NHS. It was therefore no surprise that the 2010 Liberal Democrat manifesto suggested market reform of the NHS, including abolition of SHAs, a direction of travel now emulated by the coalition government’s Health and Social Care Bill.

It should therefore be of no surprise that the leadership of the Liberal Democrats are supporting the Bill, which aims to dismantle the NHS and betrays their Party’s underlying principles to protect public services. However, many backbench Liberal Democrat MPs and grassroots Liberal Democrat members do not subscribe to the Orange Book camp’s view and they must surely be extremely concerned about the direction of travel that Nick Clegg has taken them. In fact, there is a significant section of Liberal Democrat MPs who belong to the centre left Beveridge Group, which was formed to counter the right leaning Orange Book liberals.

One member of this group, Andrew Carmichael, MP, stated that: “Should the party of Beveridge and Keynes approach issues with a prejudice in favour of the free market system? Should we enter every policy debate with an underlying belief that private is always better than public? I certainly do not think so.”

These MPs could therefore hold the key to preventing the demise of the NHS as a publicly funded and provided service. The whips will be making sure that they vote in favour of the Bill and this was successfully achieved with the second reading of the Bill. I would therefore like to make a plea that they start to listen to the concerns of the medical profession and move away from the market-based policies that are designed to cause the ‘creative destruction’ of the NHS. This will end up destroying their own party and they will have no excuses.

I would also ask that doctors that live in the constituencies of Liberal Democrat MPs, write to them or meet them in their surgeries to discuss the damaging consequences of the Health and Social Care Bill.

If the Bill passes, then the Liberal Democrats must be made to shoulder the blame for the demise of the NHS. This must include the Beveridge Group, who have been so weak as to allow their own party to become hijacked by politicians who share almost identical ideology to their Conservative masters.

The following list of Liberal Democrats belong to the Beveridge Group. You can contact them here.

Norman Baker MP

John Barrett MP

Annette Brooke MP

Alistair Carmichael MP

Tim Farron MP

Don Foster MP

Andrew George MP

Mike Hancock MP

John Hemming MP

Martin Horwood MP

Simon Hughes MP

Chris Huhne MP

Mark Hunter MP

John Leech MP

John Pugh MP

Dan Rogerson MP

Bob Russell MP

Adrian Sanders MP

Mark Williams MP

Roger Williams MP

Stephen Williams MP

Jenny Willott MP

Richard Younger-Ross former MP

Finding inspiration on the north Norfolk coast

By Mike Broad - 27th February 2011 12:10 pm

I bumped into the health secretary this morning. (Well, if it wasn’t him, he bore an uncanny resemblance to Andrew Lansley).

I’ve spent the tail end of the week on the north Norfolk coast with my family. My kids were ‘crabbing’ on the quay side and I was in search of a Sunday morning expresso.

It was a beautiful, clear morning with a back drop of mud flats, geese and the sea. At this time of year thousands of Brent geese amass, rallying themselves for the long migration north.

As I walked up what passes for a ‘high street’ in Blakeney I’m pretty sure I passed Lansley. He looked tired. Maybe, like me, he’d been out to grab some fresh air and clear his head.

We have met in the past, but there was no flicker of recognition on his part this time. I’ll get over it.

But, it did make me contemplate the pressure he must be under. The coalition government is taking an enormous risk with the Health and Social Care Bill, and his career is on the line.

The problem he’s got - and I’m guessing from the look on his face this morning he knows it - is that he’s starting to lose the support of the profession.

Despite the initial optimism of GPs signing up to become ‘pathfinders’, research now suggests that suspicion is growing.

As Dr Hamish Meldrum, chair of BMA council, told MPs at the committee stage of the Bill: “We are conducting a large survey of about 20,000…there are some enthusiasts and some total rejectionists. There is also a very large group - probably about 70% or so - who are pretty sceptical.”

Few doctors are going to argue with more clinical control over commissioning, but a lot are uncomfortable with aggressive marketisation. Many can still remember the shortcomings of the ‘internal market’.

The BMA is holding a Special Representatives Meeting next month to discuss the way forward. The feeling is that the leadership could be forced to harden their approach with the government by the grass roots. Their current approach of ‘critical engagement’ is being, well, heavily criticised.

BMA opposition will not stop the Bill progressing. But, it would heighten the level of scrutiny around the approach and threaten the success of its implementation.

There’s no doubt that the health secretary has to renew his efforts to win the hearts and minds of the medical profession for the reforms. Indeed, I hear he is currently visiting clinicians all over the country in a bid to get his message across.

Certainly, recent developments suggest the government has realised how unpopular the spectre of the private sector is proving and is now trying to play down its influence.

It might be too late to keep the profession on board. Doctors fear the double whammy of top-down change and unprecedented rationalisation - and Lansley can’t do anything about that. Just when he needs clinicians most, the government is freezing consultant pay, slashing CEAs and looking to hike doctors’ pension contributions.

I hope he found some time for reflection on the north Norfolk coast. Something has got to give - whether it be the timescales or the extent of the reform. Like the migration of our feathered friends, who shared our crisp winter morning, the journey is only just beginning and there’s every chance they will be blown off course en route to their final destination.

Proposals to cut readmissions will damage care

By Mike Broad - 24th February 2011 9:13 am

Government plans to cut the number of patient readmissions must be introduced sensitively if they are to avoid damaging patient care, a report warns.

The NHS Confederation and Foundation Network study reveals that the recently announced system to impose financial penalties on acute trusts that readmit patients within 30 days could cost hospitals millions and have serious unintended consequences for patients.

The policy is designed to ensure that hospitals get the treatment they provide for conditions right first time so patients do not need to be readmitted, but the report argues that this could prove counter-productive.

The report argues that local commissioners, who will be responsible for interpreting and implementing the policy, should focus on those conditions where there is a clear clinical priority to reduce readmissions rather than set broad targets which could be seen to be unfairly penalising hospitals for providing necessary care.

The government has already moved to lessen the impact of the measures but even with recent changes figures show that the plans could still cost hospitals as much as £800m a year.

The report identifies a number of areas where a rigid readmissions policy is unlikely to work well and, if they were excluded from the policy, says the cost to the NHS could be reduced to around £490 million a year. The areas that should be excluded from the policy are all cancers, treatment for patients under 17-years-old, deaths, and higher tariff procedures.

A number of treatment areas have already been made exempt from the policy, including some cancers, maternity and mental health care. But even with those concessions the proposals would still leave some 430,000 readmissions to hospitals unpaid.

Director of the Foundation Trust Network, Sue Slipman, said: “There are good reasons for wanting NHS hospitals to reduce readmission rates which have grown significantly over the last decade.

“Nearly every part of the NHS is going through radical change at the moment, and there is a danger that this penalty scheme could unnecessarily destabilise some NHS services. The current blanket policy will unnecessarily compound the risks provider organisations are facing and should be reviewed to make sure it is better targeted to meet the policy objectives.”

Nigel Edwards, acting chief executive of the NHS Confederation, said: “Unplanned readmissions are not good for patients or their families who want treatment to be right first time. However, only half of readmissions are related to the original admission and also that the majority of emergency readmissions are amongst the elderly who often have multiple conditions.”

Read the full briefing.

Reforms galvanise staff…in different directions

By Stephen Campion - 8:50 am

Much to the delight of my team I will be away from the office for a short while.

There is always so much to do and not enough time to do it in. It reminds me of a well known Christian prayer of forgiveness: “I have done those things that I ought not to have done, and I have left undone those things that I ought to have done.”

How apt, as I frantically thought about what I could be blamed for in my absence. Blame is something that all ‘leaders’ must learn to take in their stride. It goes with the territory.

And those leaders will find their territory increasingly in the spotlight in the coming weeks and months. The NHS reforms have done more to galvanise NHS staff than just about anything else in living memory. The problem is though that, far from being galvanised in the same direction, leaders will find themselves trying to appease points of view that are mutually exclusive. I am no physicist but even I know that it is impossible to join magnetic north and south poles together.

So, I need a strategy. And in search for inspiration I turned to the health section of the BBC website. And there my prayers were answered. Whilst not perhaps being forgiven for any “undones” I have left behind at least I know now how to survive.

The BBC helpfully pointed to two pieces of research. The first reported a review of 30 years research which showed that an alcoholic drink a day can help keep heart disease at bay.

The second reported a study by the National Institutes of Health in the US which suggests that mobile phones could have an effect on the brain.

Whatever problems leaders may have in the next couple of weeks, I intend to follow this research advice. No mobile phone? Bliss. An alcoholic drink a day? Well, I will do my best, but no guarantees!

“Doctors and managers must not forget the lessons of Stafford”

By Dr Paul Woodmansey, consultant cardiologist at Mid Staffordshire NHS Foundation Trust - 23rd February 2011 4:14 pm

This article first appeared in a recent issue of the RCP’s Clinical Medicine.

Stafford Hospital, or as it is more usually referred to in the press, the ‘beleaguered’, ‘troubled’ or ‘scandal hit’ Stafford Hospital, is a medium-sized district general hospital sited near the centre of a small town surrounded by beautiful countryside and a handful of small market towns. It is generally considered to be a pleasant place to live and bring up a family, lying in a rural oasis between the urban sprawls of the Black Country to the south and the Potteries to the north.

When the Healthcare Commission published its report in March 2009, this modest hospital was catapulted onto the front pages of national newspapers and politicians queued up to express their disgust on television and the radio. There has been much discussion within the hospital and local papers as to whether some accounts of poor care were exaggerated, the use of hospital standardised mortality rate (HSMR) has been strongly questioned and many colleagues elsewhere have expressed relief that it was our hospital not theirs which had received such in-depth scrutiny.

It soon became clear that the real position of the hospital in the national league of awfulness did not matter. What did matter was that many patients had received poor care and, for some, their treatment was appalling.

The reason for this has been picked over at length but it essentially boiled down to poor managerial and clinical leadership in some areas, lack of clinical staff, particularly nurses, with inevitable low morale and, to some extent, lack of equipment.

What kind of hospital is Stafford at the time of writing in October 2010? Certainly not perfect, but by many measures vastly improved. There are more consultant posts in the emergency department and the number of consultants in acute medicine has increased. There has been a review of surgical specialties and a significant increase in nursing numbers.

For the staff, it remains a work in progress and much is still to be done to regain the confidence of the local population.

While many poor judgements were made and the need to blame is entirely understandable, it is important to recognise that nobody who worked at Mid Staffordshire Foundation Trust came to work with the intention to do harm. However, the entire senior management team has since been replaced, many by short-term appointments. This has been necessary and helpful, but also unsettling.

How did we let it happen?

No doubt all the consultants in Stafford have asked themselves this question. There were certainly times when consultants raised serious concerns and it seems that ‘the management’ did not listen or did not act. We understood the very difficult financial situation and most of the time we did as many in the health service do, and got on with our daily jobs working very hard to make the best of difficult circumstances.

It is important to understand that in most parts of Stafford Hospital patients were receiving good treatment, but it is sobering to realise how one can get used to such poor standards in other areas. In retrospect more of us should have made it clear that there were unacceptable staffing levels and practices in emergency care.

New way of working

If a hospital’s performance was measured by the number of visiting agencies visiting the place, Stafford would be by far the best hospital in the country. Of particular value to the consultant physicians was the help offered by Dr Ian Sturgess and Russell Emeny of the interim management and support team and Professor Sir George Alberti.

It seemed that this terrible situation could be turned into an opportunity to make genuine improvements. A small group led by myself and Dr Shaun Nakash in acute medicine realised that consultant input was the key to better and more efficient patient care.

We practised the old model of the acute medical take which was run by a specialist registrar with a morning consultant-led post-take ward round the following day. In the summer of 2009, a few of us informally trialled a ‘new way of working’ in which all patients referred to medicine would be seen by the on-call consultant as soon as possible, ideally within two hours of referral. The assessment was recorded by a junior doctor on a specially designed page in the emergency care pathway which prompted the consultant to make a clear problem/diagnostic list, management plan and to estimate the date and time of discharge, whether venous thromboembolism prophylaxis was required and the most appropriate ward for the patient, or if community care was possible.

After what seemed to be a successful trial, the entire consultant physician body accepted the new way of working and it was formalised from July 2009. The acute medical consultants manage the weekdays between 0800 and 1600 after which the on-call physician takes over and is present on the ‘shop floor’ from 1700 to 2030. A post-take ward round for all the night patients is carried out at 0800 the following morning.

This is consistent with the guidelines produced by the Royal College of Physicians for managing non-elective care.

In December 2007, we introduced a Saturday morning ‘trouble-shooting’ round in which the on-call consultant visited all the medical wards to see any sick patients and to aid weekend discharges. More recently a similar Sunday morning ward round has been introduced. The ‘new way of working’ at the weekends involves the attendance of the on-call physician in the afternoons and into the evening in addition to the Saturday and Sunday morning post-take rounds.

We do not claim that this approach is unique, but it has led to an increase in early discharges and appears to have coincided with a reduction in mortality including at the weekend. What has struck me particularly is the relative ease in which this major change to our working lives was introduced.

So, how did it come about? Consultants proposed the change and tried it and their colleagues quickly accepted that it was good for patient care.

Work in progress

Having made some progress with the first 48-hours of acute medicine, we are currently focusing on care on the specialty medical wards. Perhaps the greatest challenge to consultant physicians (and our managers) is the recognition that a consultant delivered - not led - service is required. I suspect that most people accept the principle, but the practice tends to be more difficult.

It is necessary for patient safety and because of the pace of life in a modern hospital, including the need to reduce length of stay and our inability to rely on junior doctors means that our patients need senior input every day.

It should involve seeing all new patients on the ward, all sick ones and some of those planned for home. Many timetables (including mine) are set up in such a way as to make this difficult. However, daily review is best practice. I believe that we need to remember that the reason we have hospitals is to care for the acutely ill and while outpatient activity is very important, the relative priorities, including financial ones, have become distorted.

A patient with stable angina can wait a while with little risk. When a patient with an acute cardiac condition, severe enough to be in hospital, is admitted to my ward on Monday afternoon after my ward round, it is simply wrong for them to have to wait to see me until my next planned round on Thursday. I and my colleagues therefore squeeze in ward reviews and in-patient referrals in between other activities, but we are now working in job planning to make this core activity.

A personal view

In my opinion a major underlying cause of the ‘Stafford scandal’ was that most of us, including politicians and healthcare professionals, had lost sight of the fundamental priority of a national health service. That is to provide excellent and immediate care to those who become suddenly very unwell. There have been tremendous improvements in many areas such as cardiac, cancer and orthopaedic care.

However, the importance of the care of sick elderly patients who make up the bulk of our medical ‘takes’ have only rarely grabbed the headlines. Care of these patients is expensive in staff time and resources, it is often difficult and tiring and can only be delivered in a high-quality way by departments which are equipped appropriately, are well staffed by motivated individuals and led by enthusiastic consultants.

What are the lessons to learn?

It might be comforting to imagine, but no one should fool themselves into thinking, that the problems which occurred in Stafford were unique. Our hospital did not have the worst HSMR in the country during the period under investigation. Delivery of good healthcare is difficult, particularly in the pressured environment of emergency care.

Much as I would love to return to the relative anonymity of old, politicians, healthcare mangers and clinical staff must not forget the lessons of Stafford. What does it say about this still rich country if we cannot fund sufficient nurses and doctors to look after our sick and elderly when they most need it? As consultants we are the ones who need to lead change and we are the most powerful advocates for our patients and sometimes have to muster the courage to state loudly and clearly when ‘care’ is simply not good enough.

Armageddon for out-of-hours rotas finally arrives

By Caroline Whymark - 12:08 pm

It has finally arrived - the staffing crisis that has long been threatening to hit out-of-hours rotas.

The crisis has been coming such a long time that you would have thought a plan for managing it would have been put in place. We thought it would arrive in 2007 when MMC restricted training numbers. We then thought it would arrive in 2009 when the 48-hour week finally became law. But only this year, has push really come to shove.

When will those at the top of the decision-making tree actually listen and take heed of the day-to-day difficulties currently facing clinicians?

Money has been found here and there and diverted from many pots to fund a couple of extra consultant jobs (which to date don’t solve the first on rota problem).

As trainee numbers have dwindled the unused salaries have been identified and made available to be used for specialty doctor posts. But that solution doesn’t work in practice. There are fewer and fewer applications for our almost continually run specialty doctor advert. This is largely because there are no such doctors out there anymore. They are either in Specialty Training or in Australia.

Nor are there any locums. Since the ‘lost tribe’ found other sources of employment and other doctors were refused entry to the country, there is no pool of locums. Trainees are limited to a 48 hour working week. They cannot readily do the locums shifts even when extra money is available.

But, crunch time is here. Forty per cent of our trainee cohort are about to leave the programme due to a variety of bona fida reasons: a year abroad, a specialist fellow post, an inter deanery transfer, a maternity leave. These leave unfilled and unfillable posts.

Unfortunately, it feels like no-one is really listening. Perhaps we are our own worst enemy by continually coping with such staff reductions. But the slack in our system has run out. We will no longer be able to run our rotas.

What’s the solution? The number of man hours available within the system is finite.

We could waive the working time regulations, and revert to an on call system with more hours in hospital, but recognising that all of them are not spent working.

The other option is to merge sites and reduce the number of rotas to maintain current out-of-hours staffing and services. This would undoubtedly be unpopular. Smaller hospitals would close, MSPs would lose their seats, the public would lose their local hospital services and have to travel further afield for treatment.

But, is this a bad thing? Maintaining medical staffing on a wing and a prayer is not a success at any level.

The hope is that we will struggle on managing in the short term. In 2012, a bulge of trainees will finish their training culminating in the CCT and entry to the specialist register. They will be consultants in all but name or pay (status went a long time ago). There will be plenty of them, desperate for any jobs with which to pay the mortgage. The old rules of supply and demand will force them to take the jobs on offer and, lo and behold, we will have specialists to deliver the service.

But we can’t wait for them. Our out-of-hours Armageddon happens before then. Our workforce is annihilated now and trainee numbers continue to be reduced.

There will be a gap, and this sort of gap will threaten patient care. The radical and unpopular decisions that are needed will be postponed until after 5 May, the date of the next Scottish parliamentary election. And there’s a danger that they’ll be postponed until after the next one, and the next one…